What is going on in Pittsburgh?

As the title of this post suggests, something isn't quite right in Pittsburgh.  The Penguins are playing terrible and could even potentially finish second in the division at their current pace (If Philadelphia keeps up their current pace as well, they will overtake the Penguins to win the division).  So, the question is, "What changed?"

There is ample ammunition for folks to blame the Penguins' current slump on--Injuries to top line players, Olympic hangover, lack of depth, players being distracted by shiny objects--but that's all it is: excuses.  If there's one nice thing about this whole situation, it's that the players aren't making excuses and just say they need to play better.  And they're right.

I'm not really into advanced stats.  If I had interest ruining things I like with math and work...well I don't know, but I probably just wouldn't like anything.  However, the little bit I do know suggests that the numbers always seem to return to their overall average.  And I'll bet the Penguins played a good deal of the early season playing above their Corsi average.  Again, I don't know because I don't care.  If this is the case, however, they are likely regressing to a more realistic number, or more accurately are regressing in performance to match their Corsi.  Think about it--they were winning a LOT of games at the beginning of the season, despite injuries.  But, if you watched those games now, they were sloppy, poor-played, and really only wins because of two factors: Luck and the Niskanen/Maatta combination on defense being...just gravy.

So how does my advances statistics rant above have anything to do with the players playing better?  It doesn't really, but it further illustrates a point that the team, for whatever reason, can't seem to get any support level scoring.  THIS is the fact that people should be focusing on, not the fact that lines 1 and 2, "aren't scoring enough."  I'm not going to bother looking it up, but if you want to, check out what percent of the Penguins' scoring has come from the top two lines (or players on those top two lines).  I'm sure the number is through the roof.

So really, when the players are saying they just need to play better, it's not Crosby (leading the league in points by about a mile), it's not Malkin (11 points in his last 10 games: March 6-March 23), it's not even Fleury (his 2.37 GAA and .915 save % are right around his career average, and better than the 2008-2009 season he won a cup in).  No, the problem with this team right now is the secondary scoring.  And the Penguins didn't lose too many of their bottom-6 players in the offseason.

So what's the cause of this dropoff in secondary scoring?  My first though is coaching.  Dan Bylsma has been a great coach, and the players love him, which is obviously a plus.  However, I get the impression that as Dan's system sets in, the Penguins are relying more on their top 2 lines to do the scoring and their bottom 2 to shut down opponents top lines.  Which is a reasonable expectation, except that Bylsma apparently has some allergy to matching opponents lines.  It almost seems as though HE isn't even sure what he wants to do.

Another potential cause of this issue is the sheer number of rookies that are filling in on the bottom-6, and the apparent lack of opportunity the players have to try and develop chemistry with their linemates.  Brandon Sutter is a prime example.  He hasn't had a good season, despite playing a similar role in Carolina.  He's had a revolving door most of the season, sometimes even period to period within games, on both wings.  How is he supposed to know where players will be, when to cover and when to press--how is he supposed to know anything about players on his line when it changes every 20 minutes.  Of course, this still goes back to the initial statement...This seems to be a coaching issue.

I'm not saying the Dan Bylsma needs to go.  But I'm not not saying it either.  Ultimately, this may be the make or break season for his coaching tenure in Pittsburgh. After repeated disappointing early playoff exits, and a poor showing as the Olympic coach, last year was Stanley Cup or bust for this team.  This year is probably Stanley Cup or bust for this coach.